双语|惠誉评级:2019年油价将达60美元每桶

能源舆情 浏览次数: 2016-11-30 23:34

走过路过,不要错过这个公众号哦! Fitch Ratings: Oil prices to reach $60/bbl in 2019 惠誉评级:2019年'...

走过路过,不要错过这个公众号哦!

Fitch Ratings: Oil prices to reach

$60/bbl in 2019

惠誉评级:2019年油价将达60美元每桶

Oil supply and demand are expected to be broadly balanced in the first half of 2017, with a move to a more pronounced deficit from the second half of 2017, said the report posted on the website of Fitch Ratings.

惠誉评级公司官网的一篇报道称,预计2017年上旬石油供需总体能达到平衡,但2017年下旬将明显表现出供不应求。

But the still-high commercial inventories may delay any significant price response, according to the report. Therefore, Fitch Ratings has maintained its base-case assumption that the prices for both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will average $45 per barrel in 2017.

报道称, 由于商业库存仍旧处于较高水平,重要的价格回应有可能会延迟。因此,惠誉评级维持此前对油价的假设,即 2017年布伦特原油期货和西德克萨斯轻质原油期货的平均价格都将为每桶 45 美元。

“We have also maintained our $55/barrel assumption for 2018 and introduced a 2019 price expectation of $60, reflecting our belief that it may take longer to fully return to our long-term equilibrium price of $65/barrel,” said the report.

“我们对 2018 年平均油价将达每桶 55 美元、2019年达60美元的预期不变。我们认为,还需要更长的时间才能完全回归到每桶 65 美元的长期平衡价格。”

However, Fitch Ratings believes that there is significant uncertainty about the future of oil prices. “Unprecedented capex cuts could translate into a far sharper fall in output than the consensus expectation, while there is also potential for demand growth to slow if economic growth disappoints or for supply to be higher than expected if US shale comes back strongly as prices rise,” said the report.

然而,惠誉评级认为,未来油价还有很大的不确定性。史无前例的资本支出削减措施可能会导致产量大幅下降,其降幅或远高于市场一致预期。与此同时,如果经济增长表现令人失望,那么需求增长可能会放缓。或是如果美国页岩油产量随着油价上涨而强势回升,那么可能导致供过于求。

The price assumptions of Fitch Ratings do not factor in any impact from a possible OPEC production cut agreement during its meeting scheduled for 30 November. “This is because even if a deal is agreed, its ability to have a lasting impact on prices is unclear and will depend on the size of the cuts and the willingness of members to stick to them,” said the report.

惠誉评级的价格预设未考虑11月30日欧佩克减产协议可能带来的影响。“这是因为即使达成一致协议,也不确定是否能对原油价格产生长期影响,还要考虑到减产的规模以及欧佩克成员国坚守协议的意愿。”

Russia says to not participate

in OPEC meeting

俄罗斯:无参加OPEC会议计划

Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak doesn’t plan to take part in OPEC’s Vienna meeting on Nov. 30.“This is not necessary. We need OPEC to hold a meeting. Of course, if a consensus is reached there and OPEC makes a decision, we will hold talks soon,” RIA Novosti quoted Novak as saying Nov. 29.

欧佩克维也纳会议于30日召开,俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克表示,他没有出席的计划。“当然,这视情况而定,我们需要欧佩克主持会议。如果会议达成共识,并且欧佩克做出决定,我们很快会举行会谈。”

In September, OPEC producers agreed during an informal meeting in Algiers to cut down the oil output to 32.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from current production of 33.24 million bpd. How much each country will produce is to be decided at the next formal meeting of OPEC on Nov. 30 in Vienna.

九月份,在阿尔及尔非正式会议期间,欧佩克各石油生产国一致同意削减石油产量,从当时3324万桶降低到每日3250万桶。每个国家具体的产量要在30日欧佩克维也纳正式会议中决定。

Earlier, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow is ready to freeze output.This is while leading Russian oil companies, responsible for three quarters of output in the world's largest producer, say they will boost output next year after reaching record levels in recent months.

早期,俄罗斯总统普京表示,俄罗斯做好了冻结产量的准备。当时,俄罗斯几家石油行业领先公司(这几家石油公司产量占俄罗斯产量的四分之三)表示,他们明年会继续增加产量。而近几个月,石油产量刚刚创下历史新高。

The US bank JP Morgan believes that there is a 60-percent chance of a successful OPEC meeting in Vienna.“Assuming OPEC implements the deal we expect to be agreed in late November, oil markets could start to recover in the second quarter of 2017, as tighter supplies and continued demand growth tighten balances,” said the JP Morgan analysts.

美国摩根大通银行认为,维也纳会议成功召开的几率有百分之六十。摩根大通的分析师们称,“如果欧佩克各国履行这次会议达成的协议,由于供应紧缩,需求持续上涨,导致平衡吃紧,所以石油市场将于2017年第二季度复苏。”

If OPEC fails to reach an agreement then JP Morgan expects prices collapse to between $35-$40 per barrel, depending on extraneous factors, such as weather and broader financial market stability.

摩根大通预计,如果欧佩克成员间不能达成一致,油价会暴跌至35-40美元每桶。当然,也要考虑到其他因素,比如天气情况和金融市场稳定程度对油价的影响。

翻译:高鹤(微信部)

审校:林颖(微信部)

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